Developing a Human Resource Development Scenarios Using a Strategic Foresight Approach

Avini, Mehdi; Zahedi, Shamsosadat; Montazeri, Mohammad

doi:10.22034/jnamm.2026.583248.1305

Developing a Human Resource Development Scenarios Using a Strategic Foresight Approach

Document Type : Original Article (Qualitative)

Authors

Mehdi Avini ¹

Shamsosadat Zahedi ²

Mohammad Montazeri ³

¹ PhD student in Public Administration, Si.C., Islamic Azad University, Sirjan, Iran

² Professor, Department of Management, Si.C.,Islamic Azad University, Sirjan, Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Managment, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/jnamm.2026.583248.1305

Abstract

Abstract
The aim of this research is to formulate a human resources development scenario for the traffic police with a foresight approach. This research was applicable-developmental in terms of purpose, and qualitative in terms of research method. The statistical population of the research includes 14 traffic police managers. Individuals were selected by a purposeful method based on at least 10 years of management experience and complete familiarity with this field. The MICMAC and Wizard Scenario methods were utilized to analyze the findings. The results showed that 11 drivers of new traffic police technologies, behavioral and social changes in drivers, traffic police economic policies, revision of traffic police laws, global convergence in traffic management, demographic and aging challenges, development of traffic culture, public demands on traffic police, management of traffic police emergencies, road traffic safety, and sustainable development of traffic management are effective in developing a human resources development scenario for the traffic police. Also, based on the results of Scenario Wizard, a total of eighty-five scenarios are presented to the traffic police. However, two scenarios of progress and development and awareness raising have been introduced as the most important and likely paths to achieving the goals, which have higher priority than others.
Introduction
Globalization and the rapid growth of information and communication technology have brought a fundamental change to the human resource management process, and the role and function of human resources have been marginalized by the strong presence of information and communication technology, and it is even feared that some day human resource management will be realized without the role of humans in all organizational areas and dimensions (Naji & Alirezaei, 2025). Human resources, as the most valuable organizational resource, are the main axis of the organization's approaches and activities and play a fundamental role in achieving the organization's goals and ideals (Babaei Meybodi & Alirezaei, 2020). Like many organizations, the police organization depends on efficient and capable human resources. The nature of police work and being in stressful situations requires efficient human resources (Parsay et al. 2020). Training and development are critical to the success of an organizational HRM strategy, yet there is abundant evidence that shows some organizations fail to achieve desired business outcomes through training interventions (Dixit & Sinha, 2020).
In general, several studies have argued that training and development are critical to the success of an organizational HRM strategy, yet there is abundant evidence that shows some organizations fail to achieve desired business outcomes through training interventions. According to estimates from the American Association for Training and Development, organizations in the United States spend more than $126 billion on employee training and development each year. This amount has increased to $135 billion by 2010 (Dixit & Sinha, 2020).
Employing a foresight approach and developing plausible scenarios can help identify trends, key uncertainties, and future skill needs and provide a basis for designing human resource development strategies in traffic police. Despite the importance of this issue, limited studies in the research literature have specifically addressed the scenario development of human resources in the traffic police with a foresight approach; therefore, this study seeks to identify possible scenarios for the development of human resources in the traffic police by utilizing foresight methods and provide a framework for strategic planning in this area. Considering what has been said, this study seeks to answer the question: how is the formulation of a scenario for the development of human resources in the traffic police with a foresight approach?
Theoretical framework
Human resource development
Human resource development is a set of programs, activities, components and systems designed and implemented to improve performance. Traditionally, improving the performance of the organization is facilitated through three broad areas including training and development, evaluation, program and development in the organization. It can be decisively stated that these fields are not just concepts of human resource development and only part of the human resource development literature (Abili et al. 2020).
Abdulkazem Helu Al Rakabi et al. (2025) conducted a research with the aim of providing a model for improving human resource management with an emphasis on technology-oriented education in the era of digital transformation. The research results showed that there is a 17-factor model with 88 indicators for improving human resource management in the age of digital transformation. This model includes seven causal factors, six background factors, two intervening factors and two strategies. The findings showed that there are significant relationships between all the factors of the model and its two strategies. Also, the presented model has a strong overall fit. This research can be useful for managers and policymakers by taking advantage of technology-based training to improve human resource management in their organizations in the era of digital transformation.
Rajabi Farjad et al. (2025) conducted a research with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the challenges of human resource management in the digital age. The research is applicable in terms of purpose, and descriptive in terms of method. The research method in the study is Delphi in the qualitative part and descriptive research in the quantitative part. Statistical population of the research consists of specialists in human resources management and information technology, Tehran's Asan-Pardakht company. The sample size in both sections (Delphi and TOPSIS Fuzzy), consists of 10 experts. The main tool for collecting information was a questionnaire based on theoretical foundations and conducting three rounds of the Delphi method, the validity of which was based on the technique of long-term engagement with long-term contact with the participants. Then, weighting was carried out by TOPSIS algorithm according to the opinions of experts. The findings of the research showed that the sub-indices of the need for a revolutionary change in society and organization, digital investment, promotion of value creation, information sharing and facilitating organizational changes were ranked first in the research. In addition, the sub-indices of understanding the need to change behavior, communication and interaction with the customer, human resources as a business partner, promoting innovation, the ability to work with tools in the digital field and designing organizational change processes are the factors that have the least impact on the challenges of human resource management in the digital era.
Research methodology
This research was applicable-developmental in terms of purpose, and qualitative in terms of research method. The statistical population of the research includes 14 traffic police managers. Individuals were selected by a purposeful method based on at least 10 years of management experience and complete familiarity with this field.
Research findings
MICMAC and Wizard Scenario methods were applied for the analysis. The results showed that 11 drivers of new traffic police technologies, behavioral and social changes of drivers, economic policies of traffic police, revision of traffic police laws, global convergence in traffic management, population and aging challenges, development of traffic culture, public demands from traffic police, management of emergency situations of traffic police, road traffic safety, sustainable evolution of traffic management are effective in formulating the development scenario of traffic police human resources. Also, based on the results of scenario wizard, a total of eighty-five scenarios are facing the traffic police. However, the two scenarios of progress and development and raising awareness have been introduced as the most important and most likely paths for achieving the goals, which have a higher priority than others.
Conclusion
The present study was conducted with the aim of formulating the human resources development scenario of the traffic police with a foresight approach.. The results of this research are somewhat in agreement with the findings of Abdulkazem Helu Al Rakabi et al. (2025), Rajabi Farjad et al. (2025), Lotfollahi Haqi et al. (2025), Reza Alizadeh et al. (2025), Mehraban et al. (2025), Shariati et al. (2025), Gheiravani et al. (2023), Banmairuroy et al. (2022), Nnadi et al. (2021), Vahabi et al. (2019), Taheri Damaneh et al. (2014), Vahabi et al. (2019), and Staller et al. (2023). Mehraban et al. (2025) showed that in order to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of the organization's people, while familiarizing them with the environment and justifying them based on their needs, managers and officials should develop appropriate training courses for human resources in education and training.
In the end, based on the findings of the research, it is suggested that artificial intelligence be used to analyze historical data (accidents, weather, traffic) in order to identify accident-prone points and deploy agents proactively. Also, drones equipped with thermal cameras should be used to cover blind areas and monitor violations on inaccessible roads.

Keywords

Human resource development

modern technologies

scenario development (scenario formulation)

foresight approach

Subjects

Human resource management

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