This study aims to conduct a scenario-based analysis of stock price volatility in the Tehran Stock Exchange using a system dynamics approach. To this end, the effects of various exogenous economic conditions, including fluctuations in global oil prices, exchange-rate shocks, changes in interest rates, and inflation, on stock market price behavior in strategic industries—namely oil, petroleum products, and chemical industries—listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were examined.

In terms of purpose, the study is applied-developmental; in terms of nature and methodology, it is descriptive-analytical; and in terms of implementation, it adopts a mixed-methods (qualitative–quantitative) design. Its primary approach is based on system dynamics modeling and simulation. Using a system dynamics model and time-series data on stock market prices and economic variables, various scenarios—including changes in exchange rates, fluctuations in global oil prices, and changes in inflation and liquidity rates—were analyzed.

The findings from the sensitivity analysis indicate that non-oil exports, foreign investment, global oil prices, exchange rates, and oil exports, respectively, exert the greatest influence on stock price volatility in the industries under study. The results demonstrate that Iran’s capital market in these industries constitutes a dynamic and responsive system, the stability of which is highly dependent on interactions among environmental variables. The findings can guide decision-making by facilitating a better understanding of market risks and providing an effective managerial tool for macroeconomic policymaking and mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks.