نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی (آمیخته )
نویسندگان
1 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران
2 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه وﻟﻰ ﻋﺼﺮ (ﻋﺞ)، رﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎن، ایران
3 گروه ریاضی، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The purpose of this study is a scenario-based analysis of stock price fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange using a system dynamics approach. In terms of objective, this research is applied-developmental; in terms of nature and method, it is descriptive-analytical; regarding its execution method, it is mixed (qualitative-quantitative); and its main approach is based on system dynamics modeling and simulation. By collecting historical data on stock market prices and economic variables, various scenarios—including exchange rate changes, global oil price fluctuations, and changes in inflation and liquidity rates—were analyzed in this study. The system dynamics model was implemented using Vensim software. The findings from the sensitivity analysis indicate that non-oil exports, foreign investment, global oil prices, exchange rates, and oil exports, respectively, possess the highest impact weights on stock price fluctuations in the studied industries. The results of this research show that the Iranian capital market in the aforementioned industries is a dynamic and reactive system whose stability heavily depends on the interactions of environmental variables. Furthermore, the findings can serve as a decision-making guide for a better understanding of market risks, providing an effective management tool for macroeconomic policymaking and mitigating the adverse effects of exogenous shocks.
کلیدواژهها English
